(Note: This is an anonymous submission that has been edited by Ghostnet)
In recent weeks, Bangladesh has been thrust into a period of intense political and social upheaval. As the world watches these rapid developments, it's essential to clarify several key points to better understand the nature of the events unfolding in the country.
1. Not a Color Revolution, But a People's Uprising
Contrary to some narratives, the recent turmoil in Bangladesh is not the product of a color revolution orchestrated by Western powers. This movement is, in fact, a spontaneous and indigenous uprising, born out of widespread public anger and discontent.
The student leaders at the forefront of the anti-discrimination protests have no ties to foreign embassies or external forces. Despite the government's extensive investigations into these leaders, no evidence of foreign influence has been uncovered, reinforcing the movement's authenticity.
What began as a relatively modest request for reform in the quota system quickly transformed into a widespread and intense mass uprising. This rapid evolution underscores the deep-seated discontent simmering beneath the surface. Several factors contributed to this transformation: the widespread support for quota reform, persistent economic challenges such as high inflation and corruption, political oppression, and the Awami League's heavy-handed response to the protests. The excessive use of force by the government, resulting in unprecedented fatalities among students and ordinary citizens, further fueled the anger and intensity of the uprising.
This dynamic mirrors the revolutionary fervor seen in Algeria during its independence struggle against French colonialism, as described by the revolutionary thinker Frantz Fanon. Just as Fanon observed that true liberation comes from the people seizing it with their own hands, the Bangladeshi uprising reflects a similar drive for self-determination. Fanon’s analysis of the Algerian revolution as a transformative process, where people themselves are changed as they change the world, resonates deeply with the current situation in Bangladesh. The Chief of Army Staff (COAS), despite his familial ties to a former dictator, has emerged as a constitutionalist, committed to upholding the rule of law rather than exploiting the crisis for personal gain. His restraint has been instrumental in preventing a potential bloodbath and averting a further descent into chaos, much like the Algerian military's initial reluctance to crush the Hirak movement in recent years.
2. Attacks on Minority Communities: A Complex Reality
The crisis has unfortunately seen attacks on minority communities, but these incidents are more complex than they might initially appear. The attacks can be categorized into three distinct types:
- a. Sectarian Violence: In some remote villages, individuals driven by deep-seated animosity towards Hindus have targeted temples and homes. These actions, while alarming, have been met with strong resistance from local communities, who have intervened to stop the attacks. It is important to note that, as of now, no fatalities have been reported in these cases, highlighting the resilience and solidarity of these communities in the face of sectarian hatred.
- b. Opportunistic Looting: Amid the chaos, there have been instances of opportunistic looting, where individuals have taken advantage of the situation to prey on those they perceive as vulnerable, including minority communities. This looting has been widespread, affecting not just minorities but also Muslim households across the country. While the material loss has been significant, it is worth noting that there have been no reported fatalities in these incidents, suggesting that the primary motive here is economic gain rather than ethnic or religious hatred.
- c. Retributive Violence: The most severe violence has been directed at supporters and officials of the Awami League, the recently deposed ruling party. Some of these attacks have targeted Hindu members of the party, who constitute approximately 15% of its ranks, despite representing only 8% of the population. However, this violence is not solely sectarian—Muslim members of the Awami League have also been targeted, with many suffering the same fate. The violence appears to be politically motivated, with religious identity playing a secondary role.
While the situation is undeniably dire, it would be an oversimplification to describe these events as a pogrom against religious minorities. The majority of the violence is rooted in political vendettas, with religious tensions being exploited as a tool for settling scores.
During political turmoil in Bangladesh, minorities are often the first to suffer. Political elements took advantage of these vulnerable communities in the past. In previous instances, persecuted minority families often had to abandon their homes or even flee the country, but this time their reaction has been noticeably unique. Individuals from minority communities have opted to stand firm and rally against the violence. The Bangladesh Hindu Buddhist Christian Unity Council (BHBCUC) has presented an eight-point demand, resolutely stating that they will persist with their protests until the attacks come to an end. Even though the protests were paused after Chief Adviser Dr. Muhammad Yunus gave assurances, there is still an underlying sense of tension.
It is of utmost importance that the topic of security, justice, and equal rights for these vulnerable groups continues to be prioritized in national discussions. While it is crucial to address inquiries regarding the perpetrators and political motivations behind the attacks, it is equally important to prioritize the immediate protection of these communities.
The notion put forth by Dr. Yunus that every person in Bangladesh belongs to one united family, combined with the admirable solidarity displayed by student protestors and ordinary citizens safeguarding the homes and sacred spaces of minority communities, presents a positive outlook.
The show of solidarity must continue and the interim government must provide security to all minority community members.
The minority question resurfaces, prompting us to examine our mistakes and take necessary steps. Minorities should have equal rights and protection in the new Bangladesh we aim to create. The BHBCUC's demands, such as minority community protection, CHT Peace Accord implementation, and increased representation of minorities in government, should be considered urgently. No vested groups should be able to exploit them, so sociopolitical reforms are necessary.
3. New Leadership and the Role of the West
As Bangladesh navigates this period of transition, questions have arisen about the nature and direction of the new leadership. Dr. Muhammad Yunus, a Nobel laureate with a global reputation, has emerged as a pivotal figure in the caretaker government. Despite his strong ties to Western liberal elites, including close relationships with figures like the Clintons, Emmanuel Macron, and Silicon Valley leaders, Dr. Yunus is not a puppet of the West. His leadership is grounded in a deep commitment to the principles of social justice and economic empowerment.
Dr. Yunus is widely respected for his transformative role in Bangladesh through pioneering microfinance and social business initiatives. His work has lifted millions out of poverty and brought global attention to Bangladesh's potential for innovation and development. However, his influence and popularity have also made him a target of the previous government, which spent years attempting to undermine him with baseless charges and legal challenges. Despite these efforts, no substantial wrongdoing has been uncovered, further solidifying his reputation as a man of integrity.
Fanon's warnings about the pitfalls of national consciousness are particularly relevant here. He critiqued the post-colonial leadership in Algeria for failing to genuinely empower the people and instead establishing a new class of elites who replicated colonial structures of oppression.
Dr. Yunus' leadership, with its emphasis on social justice and economic empowerment, offers a hopeful contrast to this pattern. However, the true test will be whether the new leadership can resist the temptations of power and genuinely transform Bangladeshi society.
The caretaker government that Dr. Yunus leads includes individuals with a proven track record of standing up against state excesses. Many of them have endured imprisonment for their commitment to accountability and justice, reflecting a level of leadership that Bangladesh has rarely seen in its 50+ years of existence. This team represents the best hope for a peaceful and democratic transition, free from the corrupting influences of power and personal gain.
4. Constitutionality of the Interim Government: A Legal Perspective
The constitutionality of the current interim government of Bangladesh can be understood through two key legal frameworks: Kelsen's Grundnorm theory following a revolution and the provisions of the existing Constitution of the People's Republic of Bangladesh.
Kelsen's Grundnorm theory argues that a legal system's legitimacy relies on a foundational norm that supports all its laws. Revolutions often establish a new Grundnorm reflecting the people's will.
The events in Bangladesh in July and August 2024 marked a significant shift. The people's uprising and celebration in the streets indicate a new change in public will and the birth of a new Grundnorm.
On August 5, 2024, Sheikh Hasina resigned as prime minister and left the country. The departure, along with the protest movement rapidly evolving into a massive uprising, highlights the long-standing discontent that had been brewing underneath.
From a constitutional standpoint, the establishment of the temporary government under the leadership of Dr. Yunus is also valid. The Constitution of Bangladesh, which is the highest law of the country, states that the people's will is of utmost importance.According to Article 7(2) of the Constitution, it is stated that the Constitution represents the sincere expression of the people's desires. The application of Article 57(3) becomes irrelevant due to the former prime minister's resignation and departure from the country.
The departure of the prime minister led to an exceptional scenario that was not directly addressed in the Constitution. As a result, the president and the chief justice had to intervene and interpret constitutional principles to ensure the smooth functioning of the government.
The interim government's legality is strengthened by its formation through collective expression of major political parties, student-led uprising leaders, and civil society members. The formation of this government aligns with constitutional principles and the effective control theory. The government is both de jure and de facto. The international community also recognizes this government's legitimacy. Recognition is crucial for a valid government in the modern era of international law.
5. Avoiding the Pitfalls of Egypt and Algeria
There is a growing concern that Bangladesh could follow in the footsteps of Egypt or Algeria, where military coups or authoritarian regimes crushed popular movements and stifled democratic aspirations. However, Bangladesh's situation is markedly different.
Bangladesh has had intermittent democracy since gaining independence, with periods of military rule and political instability. Despite this, the country maintains a semblance of democratic governance, with minimal military interference.
What distinguishes Bangladesh from countries like Egypt or Algeria is its remarkable history of democratic resilience, in contrast to those nations where the military has traditionally held a more visibly dominant position in governance.
The Egyptian revolution, which started on January 25, 2011, presents a thought-provoking example of the difficulties in moving from autocratic governance to democratic systems. At the beginning of the revolution, significant sections of the population, motivated by years of political suppression and economic difficulties experienced during President Hosni Mubarak's rule, mobilized and protested for change. Nevertheless, as discussed in Abdel-Fattah Mady's analysis titled "Pitfalls in Tahrir Square: Why the Egyptian Revolution Stumbled," the revolution encountered obstacles resulting from both internal and external factors. After Mubarak was overthrown, the Supreme Council of the Armed Forces took power and prioritized their own interests, disregarding the needs of the people. This eventually resulted in a counter-revolution that reinstated military dominance.
It is crucial for Bangladesh to be wary and avoid a similar destiny. The Egyptian experience shows the risks of military dominance during transitions, as stability takes precedence over democratic reform.
Egypt's transition highlights the need for inclusive political processes. The absence of consensus and reliance on partisan rivalry in Egypt's transition undermined the revolution's goals.
Bangladesh's military leadership seems committed to upholding the constitutional order, not exploiting the crisis for personal gain. Bangladesh's commitment to constitutionalism and military's aversion to violence against civilians make a repeat of Egypt or Algeria unlikely.
However, there is still a risk of authoritarian backsliding. The international community must support Bangladesh's democratic institutions and civil society for a peaceful transition.
6. Major Challenges for the Interim Government
Dr. Muhammad Yunus's interim government faces significant challenges. Priority one: restore law and order, regain public trust. Attacks on minorities emphasize the urgency for immediate action to prevent more violence. Secondly, it is imperative for the government to concentrate on revitalizing and enhancing supply chains to provide support to businesses, guarantee the availability of essential goods, and facilitate economic recovery. Stabilizing prices is a top priority due to high inflation.
Additionally, the temporary government must address major macroeconomic challenges such as declining foreign reserves and sluggish growth in exports and remittances. Furthermore, in order to achieve a seamless and credible shift to democracy, the government should introduce reforms that prioritize democratic principles and reinstate public faith in the functioning of the government. This involves promoting political dialogue and transparent elections. The interim government's evolving ties with global and regional powers may complicate reform efforts.
Moreover, it is crucial for the interim government to address the corruption and crimes that occurred during Sheikh Hasina's 15-year rule by conducting a thorough investigation.
Economic mismanagement and depleted foreign exchange reserves hint at deeper issues. The mass uprising shows the loss of faith in the existing political system, neither the Awami League nor the BNP are seen as capable of running it. The loss of faith emphasizes the need for new political parties and preventing future power consolidation.
7. Why a New Political Settlement is Necessary
A new political settlement is essential for the interim government to function effectively. Under Sheikh Hasina's regime, a coalition of elites maintained control through a dominant party system. The coalition maintained a "stable corruption equilibrium" but lacked legitimacy due to flawed elections and widespread corruption.
Sheikh Hasina's departure has shattered the old political settlement. The temporary government now faces the challenge of balancing the conflicting interests of various influential groups in Bangladesh's politics, such as the student movement, political parties, the military, the bureaucracy, and the private sector.
Without consensus on reforms, early elections pose a risk of reverting to undemocratic practices. Civil society organizations play a crucial role in facilitating dialogue for political consensus and contributing to a stable democratic settlement.
The interim government should not rush into holding elections within three months. This period is too short to restore democracy, address corruption and crimes, and prevent power consolidation. The government needs at least a year to restore constitutional rights, amend repressive laws, and foster a conducive environment for new political parties.
The fall of one government shouldn't lead to another dictatorship. It should mark the start of a new era for Bangladesh, with a true democracy that protects the rights of all citizens and upholds the rule of law.
